Monday 28 March 2022

Ukraine is not a proxy war


The Kremlin argues that this is fundamentally a war between Russia and the US with Ukraine as a proxy.

I understand and appreciate the geopolitical concerns of Russia and accept that both the US and Russia, like every country, pursue their own national interests.
However, I cannot consider both on equal footing and it is not only because one is a democracy, despite all its flaws, and the other, for all intents and purposes, an autocracy.
Let's look at the particulars.
There is no argument that the US has pursued its interests, often aggressively, including the invasion and occupation of third countries for prolonged periods of time.
Even though almost all of the countries the US invaded were autocratic with a long history of abusing their own people, in many cases these actions were taken unilaterally without UN approval, without carefully considering the aftermath, and with no solid reconstruction plans that would bring the countries back into the international community.
Where this applies, I believe that condemnation is the appropriate response.
In comparison, Russia is an autocracy that has a similar history of invading and occupying countries and instituting regime change.
Even in the worst cases in recent history (as far as I know and correct me if I am wrong) the US has not sought to deny the right to existence of the nations it has invaded and has not sought to annex their land and make it part of the USA.
In comparison, Putin’s Russia denies the existence of a Ukrainian national identity and is seeking to annex land and subjugate the population. It is not clear what the ‘denazification’ plan exactly entails.
Thirdly, for the lands the US invaded, it had not already bound itself with an international treaty to guarantee their borders after asking them to disarm.
In contrast, Russia was one of the international powers guaranteeing the sovereignty and borders of Ukraine on the condition that they hand over their nuclear arsenal, which they did.
Russia unilaterally proceeded to violate that treaty.
The reasons Russia presented to justify this invasion have been largely dismissed as untrue by official organs of the international community after careful investigations.
Ukraine is also markedly not an autocratic regime. It has a somewhat progressive democratically elected government that Russia is trying to overthrow.
So, Putin might indeed view and present this as a conflict between the US and Russia for zones of influence, denying the right of self determination of smaller countries, but, fundamentally, for the reasons stated above, it is not. And indeed, if you read Putin’s own statements, this is an attempt to ‘reunify’ historically Russian lands, as he sees it.
Russian expansionism was enabled by strong economic engagement by the West, the profits of which Putin used not to improve the living conditions of Russians, but to enrich himself, consolidate his power, violently suppress opposition and build up his military infrastructure. This is all very well documented.
The West believed that economic freedom and engagement with autocratic regimes would gradually lead to greater political freedoms and democracy. Given the history of the last two decades and in particular what is going on right now, it has become apparent the West was wrong in this assumption and we are now watching a major shift in policy.
Putin's propaganda paints the West as evil and hateful towards Russians. Granted, there are bad feelings from ex-soviet republics, who suffered tremendously under Soviet rule. But most Westerners genuinely want Russians to do well and be part of the international community.
There are still a lot of bad feelings for Germany as well, perhaps even more so than for Russia, but it cannot be denied that today’s democratic Germany is an integral part and equal partner of the international community.
Putin denies this future to the Russian people.
The final piece of the puzzle for me is that the USA, at least in recent history and despite the hawkish language, has not threatened the world with nuclear holocaust. Which the Kremlin is doing. Right now.
Anyone who, at any time and for any reason, suggests, either implicitly or explicitly, that mutual nuclear annihilation is a reasonable strategy, is by definition a psychopath.

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