Saturday, 13 September 2025

You Keep Using That Word: 'Settler-Colonial'



There’s a fashionable framework, imported from Western academia, that likes to slap the label “settler-colonialism” onto the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It’s tidy. It’s ideological. And I think it’s about as accurate as seeing the starving Irish who fled the Great Famine and washed up in Boston as nefarious agents of the British Empire. I’m exaggerating of course, but humor me while we explore it.

Originally, this concept was invoked to describe real imperial expansions: British Australia, the American frontier, apartheid South Africa. There’s a metropole that sends its people to settle, extract, dominate, and, when circumstances call, eliminate. Land is taken. Natives are displaced and/or killed. Wealth flows to the imperial center. Sometimes resistance eventually uproots the settlers and the metropole is forced to concede and withdraw, as happened with the French in Algeria. Other times, the settler colony breaks from the metropole and a new nation is born. That’s the model.

Apply it wholesale to Israel and you get a narrative that’s sufficiently complex and emotionally satisfying, but one that’s historically problematic. Worse still, it doesn’t just misread the past; it actively undermines the present, narrowing the prospects for resolution by flattening a tragic clash of national movements into a one-dimensional morality play. And beneath its righteous surface, it carries a neo-colonially racist logic, one that erases Palestinian agency, casting them as passive objects of history rather than political actors in their own right.

Ok, so let’s walk through this ugly mess together, slowly.


1. No metropole

The first red flag is the absence of an empire calling the shots. In traditional settler colonies, the motherland pulls the strings. But in the case of Zionism, there is no “motherland.” Jews didn’t arrive in Palestine as imperial agents. They were dodging pogroms, fleeing the ashes of Europe, observing the collapse of the Ottoman empire. British policy first approved but then restrained Jewish immigration, culminating in the 1939 White Paper, which slammed the gates shut on Europe’s Jews right as the Holocaust loomed. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of colonial backing.

By 1947, the British were forcibly turning back refugee ships and sending Holocaust survivors back to camps in Germany. Look up or Google the Exodus affair.

The idea that Israel is a colony is not just wrong; it’s grotesquely weaponized to serve a particular narrative. It ignores that Jews were stateless and often unwelcome even where they lived. They weren’t exporting empires. They were clawing for survival.


2. Not an invasion

What makes Israel particularly complicated is that the Jews weren’t strangers to this land. The historical memory runs deep: Jerusalem, Judea, the Second Temple. These are words with deep meaning that have been the cornerstone of Jewish identity for millennia. The land is littered with monuments of ancient Jewish civilization. Yes, Muslim ones too, and Christian. History is layered, one does not negate the other.

Yes, many Zionists came from Europe. But many more came later from Baghdad, Fez, Aleppo, and Cairo, fleeing Arab nationalism or Islamic backlash. These weren't conquistadors in fancy hats. They were also refugees.

Ok, here’s a thought experiment: Imagine if the Native Americans were exiled from their lands, scattered across the world and persecuted for centuries. All the while keeping their traditions and historical memory alive. And then returned. Not as conquerors, but as a people trying to re-establish a homeland in their ancestral lands during an opportune global moment of imperial collapse and national reawakening. Would you call it “settler-colonialism”?

The re-emergence of Jewish desire for sovereignty happened in parallel with Arab, Armenian, Greek, and Kurdish national movements while the Ottoman Empire was disintegrating. But it was not driven by the same forces. It was primarily driven by the realization and urgency of rising hostility in the lands where they had lived for centuries, always as outsiders. Not every national movement succeeded. Some clashed. Some bled. But none of them fit cleanly into the settler-colonial mold. Including this one.


3. “A land without a people”?

One enduring myth is that Zionists saw Palestine as empty. That is not true. Some early pamphlets were naive and romanticized, but serious Zionist leaders knew otherwise and wrestled with the implications. Ahad Ha’am, in 1891, warned that Arabs “see and understand what we are doing.” Jabotinsky’s “Iron Wall” (1923) assumed Arab resistance, not erasure, and argued that only when Jews were seen as permanent would moderates agree to concessions. He saw a path to coexistence:

"Not till then will they drop their extremist leaders whose watchword is 'Never!' And the leadership will pass to the moderate groups, who will approach us with a proposal that we should both agree to mutual concessions. Then we may expect them to discuss honestly practical questions, such as a guarantee against Arab displacement, or equal rights for Arab citizens, or Arab national integrity. And when that happens, I am convinced that we Jews will be found ready to give them satisfactory guarantees, so that both peoples can live together in peace, like good neighbours."

Before 1947, there were no mass expulsions, no destroyed villages, no Nakba. Jews and Arabs lived in uneasy coexistence, fractured by violence. Much of that violence fell on Jews: the Jerusalem riots of 1920, the Jaffa riots of 1921, the massacres in Hebron and Safed in 1929. During the Arab Revolt of 1936–39, hundreds of Jews were killed, and Jewish militias retaliated in kind. Bloody episodes, yes, but not a campaign of ethnic cleansing. Until the British imposed restrictions in 1939, much of the land was purchased legally, often from absentee landlords, though some Arab tenants were displaced. Not seized. Not looted. That distinction matters because it speaks to intent.

By 1937, in the midst of the Arab Revolt, the British Peel Commission proposed partition as a compromise: one state Jewish (about 17% of Mandate Palestine), one state Arab (the rest, minus a British corridor around Jerusalem). The Zionist leadership was bitterly divided; many had hoped for more, but the Congress authorized continued negotiations, albeit reluctantly. The Arab Higher Committee unanimously rejected it outright. They refused any division that included Jewish sovereignty and proposed instead an independent Arab state, with protections for the Jewish minority, while demanding a halt to Jewish immigration and a stop to land sales. Two years later, the British White Paper slammed the gates, just as some Arab leaders, most notoriously the exiled Grand Mufti, began aligning with Nazi Germany.


4. 1947–49: The war, the flight, the catastrophe(s)

As Britain prepared to abandon the Mandate in 1947, Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin summed it up in Parliament: “His Majesty's Government have thus been faced with an irreconcilable conflict of principles… For the Jews, the essential point of principle is the creation of a sovereign Jewish state. For the Arabs, the essential point of principle is to resist to the last the establishment of Jewish sovereignty in any part of Palestine.”

Britain washed its hands of the Mandate, passing the question to the UN. Resolution 181 was another shot at compromise: partition again. Two states. The Jewish Agency accepted. Arab leaders rejected it outright and mobilized. In May 1948, five Arab armies, Egypt, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq invaded the nascent state of Israel, because any form of independent Jewish state was unacceptable.

What followed was catastrophe. For Palestinians, the Nakba. Some 700,000 people displaced, hundreds of villages depopulated. But also for Jews across the Arab world, who were expelled or fled en masse. Around 800,000 of them. Hundreds of thousands ended up in Israel, swelling its population with people who had no European passports, no foreign motherland, no “metropole” to lean on.

If all of these people were “settlers,” they were the strangest kind: persecuted, stateless, homeless, and broken.


5. The framing that blocks the solution

And this, perhaps, is the most damning thing about the settler-colonial framing: it makes peace impossible.

Because if Israel is a colonial project, then the only acceptable “solution” is its dismantling. No partition. No recognition. No compromise. Just return and reversal.

That may feel righteous to some, but every serious peace effort, whether Clinton in 2000, Geneva in 2003, or Olmert–Abbas in 2008, was built on mutual recognition, reparations, land-swaps, and partition. Two states, not “decolonization”.

An obvious objection is that this isn’t about erasure, but about equality and universalism: one democratic state, no state religion, equal rights for all. What’s the problem?

The problem is that this vision demands the end of Jewish self-determination, dressed in the language of liberal principle. It imagines decades of war, trauma, and clashing national identities can be resolved by folding everyone into a single, post-national flag. But “equality” that abolishes one people’s independence isn’t peace. It’s rejectionism dressed up in respectable clothing.

The maximalist return narrative necessarily obliterates Jewish self-determination and guarantees permanent conflict. It’s a morality tale that celebrates continued rejectionism and subverts any hope for what Palestinians themselves have long demanded: an independent Palestinian state.


6. Not invaders, not demons, but no saints either

None of this is to say Israel is faultless. It isn’t. Occupation corrodes. Nationalism blinds. And yes, historical trauma can become a blunt weapon if not examined honestly. Israel also has a lot to answer for and continuously wrestles with its identity.

But if we want to talk seriously about peace, we have to understand what this conflict is *not*. It is *not* a replay of white settlers landing on native shores in the name of Queen and Country. It is *not* a story of Europeans extracting value from foreign soil.

It’s a story of two peoples, each with competing historical claims and wounds, colliding in the same space at the same time. One returning, one rooted. One exiled, one present. Both now native. Both scarred. Both stuck. And increasingly radicalized.


Bottom line?

Zionism didn’t flow from Empire. It rose from statelessness and persecution. Jews weren’t foreign to the land. They were of it, culturally, historically. And 1948 didn’t unfold in some colonial boardroom, it erupted in the ashes of empire and the chaos of war.

Call it tragic. Call it complex. But don’t stick a fancy label on it and call it something that it wasn’t. Don’t presume to know better than Israelis who they are and where they come from, and proceed to lecture them about it. Don’t distort what they tell you to fit your preferred narrative. 

Palestinians and Israelis have their own voices and they are valid, and important, and contradictory, and they matter. Afford them the dignity to listen when they tell you about who they are, and what they want. Not just the intellectual elites in the diaspora. But the voices of ordinary people, on the ground. 

When you deploy the settler-colonial framework to Israelis, you aren’t just arguing about history, you are failing to understand how they understand themselves. You are ignoring how they self-determine. And by doing so, you draw the wrong conclusions about how to engage with them effectively. If you persist in engaging people in terms they reject, you will only ever reach dead-ends.

Unless, of course, your goal isn’t understanding and resolution, but elimination, of one or the other, or both. And then the labels start to make a terrible kind of sense.

But it leads nowhere. Except back to the blood.


Post-scriptum: Post-1967 and when the analogy begins to fit

Now that I’ve probably pissed off friends and family on one side, let me risk pissing off friends and family on the other. In for a penny, in for a pound. Social isolation must be the fate I’m building for myself.

If the "settler-colonial" shoe doesn’t fit the founding of Israel, the concept begins to gain some traction after 1967. West Bank, Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights came under Israeli control, a temporary measure, to ensure security, the world was told. Yet the occupation was never rolled back. Nor were those territories formally annexed with equal rights extended to all. The situation calcified. Settlements sprang up and started expanding. These were not refugee camps or revival villages, but state-subsidized enclaves, often built on contested or privately owned Palestinian land. Security was the stated rationale. Permanence was the apparent political goal. 

Inside these territories, two populations now live under two legal systems. One votes in Israeli elections; the other is governed by military law. Roads, permits, courts, property rights, everything bifurcated. The Palestinian Authority’s autonomy is fragmented, conditional, and ultimately subordinate to Israeli control. When a democracy behaves like a landlord with a favoured tenant, it invites precisely the colonial analogies it claims to refute. Trust erodes. Legitimacy frays.

I can already hear the objections: but Hamas! Terrorism! And yes, the failures of Palestinian leadership have ranged from tragic miscalculations to outright betrayal. Opportunities for negotiated compromise have been squandered. Civilians have been targeted alongside soldiers. Terrible war crimes have been committed. An angry, zero-sum politics has often prevailed where painful compromise might have been possible. But none of this justifies an endless occupation and the slow-motion annexation of territory. 

Zionism began as a movement for national self-determination. Post-1967 expansionism is something else entirely. It distorts the original vision into a kind of nationalist overreach that threatens Israel’s future. A people who returned to their homeland as survivors risk becoming rulers by habit and occupiers by inertia. If Israel continues down this path, as it is currently doing, the question won’t be whether it was a settler colony, but whether it has chosen to become one.

[For a more comprehensive treatment of both Israeli and Palestinian narratives, including structural critiques, see my earlier piece: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Beyond Traditional Narratives.]


Further Reading & References

  • Morris, Benny. Righteous Victims: A History of the Zionist–Arab Conflict, 1881‑1999 (Vintage Books edition 2001)

  • Shafir, Gershon. Land, Labor, and the Origins of the Israeli‑Palestinian Conflict, 1882‑1914 (1989)

  • Segev, Tom. One Palestine, Complete: Jews and Arabs Under the British Mandate (2000)

  • Khalidi, Rashid. The Hundred Years’ War on Palestine: A History of Settler Colonialism and Resistance, 1917‑2017 (2020)

  • Karsh, Efraim. Palestine Betrayed (2010)

  • Halevi, Yossi Klein. Letters to My Palestinian Neighbor (2018)

  • Yakobson, Alexander & Rubinstein, Amnon. Israel and the Family of Nations: The Jewish Nation‑State and Human Rights (2008)

Thursday, 4 September 2025

The IAGS Vote and Specific Intent

I’m a wishy-washy liberal of the Stephen Fry variety—emotionally allergic to absolutism, and annoyingly attached to being precise with words, even when it gets me eye-rolls, as it often does.

Yes, yes, no one cares what an astronomer thinks about politics and it makes no difference. But it may make conversations with me easier.

So, Gaza. Here are my thoughts, dear friends, and you owe me a penny.

(Longish post, again. TLDR at the end.)

1. The IAGS resolution: what it is (and what it isn’t)

IAGS, the International Association of Genocide Scholars, recently passed a resolution calling what’s happening in Gaza a genocide. It went through a 30-day ballot and a majority of those who voted (about a ¼ of all its members) supported it. It was reported all over the media.

But : this is not a court ruling or the result of a peer-reviewed forensic investigation. IAGS membership is broad—students, activists, educators, scholars, even artists. No credential checks. You can join for as low as $30. Think of it as a professional association vote (of scholars, flutists, and flower arrangers), not an ICJ verdict. Does it carry some weight? Sure, I guess. It’s a data point with huge uncertainties. Put it there, with the rest of the data points.

2. Why I hesitate to use “genocide” (for now)

This isn’t about minimizing horror—there’s no shortage of that (and not just in Gaza).

But “genocide” has a strict legal meaning. It requires not just mass killing or cruelty, but specific intent (dolus specialis) to destroy a group as such. That’s a very high evidentiary bar, and intentionally so. Not every atrocity is genocide. Not every war crime is genocide.

The ICJ has ordered provisional measures, saying the case is *plausible* under the Genocide Convention. In legal speak: “this needs scrutiny,” not “this is proven.”

3. What I condemn without hesitation

  • Hamas’s October 7 massacre and hostage-taking: terrible war crimes, just horrifying.

  • The massive destruction and civilian death toll in Gaza—and the absence of any serious day-after plan: also horrifying.

  • Credible allegations of indiscriminate force and starvation as a weapon of war. This should alarm everyone.

  • Urban warfare is messy, yes—but that does not excuse violations of the laws of war.

All of these things can and should be investigated and prosecuted under international law, without needing to “upgrade” them to genocide for moral weight.

4. Why language matters

Words don’t just describe reality, they shape it. They drive policy, diplomacy, and public opinion.

So who does it hurt if we use “genocide” a little too eagerly?

Well, for one, it risks dulling the concept. If “genocide” gets thrown around too loosely, people start to tune it out, and future victims may struggle to get recognition when the evidence truly fits.

Secondly, it risks politicization. When the term is used prematurely or sloppily, it becomes a rhetorical weapon, not a legal judgment. That can harden positions and make negotiation harder.

Thirdly, it risks backlash. If courts or independent investigations later conclude “war crimes, yes; genocide, no,” then survivors and advocates may feel doubly betrayed—first by the atrocity, then by the narrowing of the charge.

Fourthly, it risks obscuring other crimes. War crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing—these are all serious, prosecutable categories. Over-focusing on genocide can eclipse them, as though anything “less” is somehow less urgent.

On the other hand, if we are never willing to call something genocide, we risk moral cowardice and abandonment of victims.

So I try to be careful. Not timid—careful.

5. Experts don’t agree

Respected voices arguing for genocide include Raz Segal, Omer Bartov, Francesca Albanese, William Schabas, among others.

Respected voices urging caution include Menachem Rosensaft, Deborah Lipstadt, Stefan Talmon, Marko Milanovic, and others.

You may well object and dismiss some of them on this list citing various concerns, but I just mentioned them as examples, there are many more experts to be found on either side. Take your pick.

We can disagree with their conclusions, and acknowledge their individual biases, but we can’t dismiss their expertise. The fact remains that reasonable, well-meaning people, including genocide scholars, still disagree on whether the threshold has been met yet.

6. What would change my mind?

  • Clearer, corroborated evidence of state-level or command-level intent to destroy a group as such.(1)

  • A ruling on the merits by the ICJ or ICC.

  • Independent investigations—transparent, professional, and accountable.

7. So what now?

Support a conditional ceasefire: stop the killing, release the hostages, disarm Hamas, establish security, get aid in. Not necessarily in that order. (I wrote another post on this, I won’t repeat it here.)

Let independent investigators establish the facts. That’s how we get to truth, accountability, and maybe—someday—a political resolution.

Most importantly, whatever we believe personally, ICJ and ICC rulings, when they come, will shape real-world consequences.

TLDR version:

I’m not calling it genocide right now, because that word has a specific legal meaning tied to specific intent, and I’m not convinced that threshold is met—yet. That could change.

What I am sure of is this: war crimes are happening, too many civilians are dying, and justice demands facts, not slogans.

[Your friendly neighborhood astronomer.]

1

No, not just hateful rhetoric from extremist ministers or fringe voices. Statements like those from Smotrich or Ben Gvir are abhorrent, but unless clearly tied to operational policy, they don’t meet the legal threshold for genocide. Hamas, meanwhile, has openly said October 7 will happen “again and again” until Israel is gone. Should that also count as official Palestinian policy?

Friday, 1 August 2025

Η Ισραηλινο-Παλαιστινιακή Σύγκρουση Πέρα από τις Παραδοσιακές Αφηγήσεις

Η ισραηλινο-παλαιστινιακή συζήτηση έχει παγιωθεί σε δύο ξεπερασμένες ρότες: αποτίμηση σκορ («ποιος κερδίζει;») και ηθικοί λογαριασμοί («ποιος είναι χειρότερος;»). Το εμπόδιο για την επίλυση είναι βαθύτερο και παλαιότερο. Τα δύο εθνικά κινήματα διαμορφώθηκαν στον μεταοθωμανικό αγώνα για εθνοτικά ομοιογενή κράτη, και το καθένα αντιμετωπίζει πλέον το ιδρυτικό του τραύμα ως βέτο σε οποιονδήποτε συμβιβασμό. Οι Ισραηλινοί μεταφράζουν την ανασφάλεια σε υπαρξιακή επιταγή· οι Παλαιστίνιοι αποστάζουν τον εκτοπισμό στην καρδιά της ταυτότητάς τους. 

Το παρόν δοκίμιο εξετάζει πώς η αμοιβαία άρνηση —περισσότερο απ’ ό,τι η γη ή η ιδεολογία— συντηρεί τη σύγκρουση και τι μπορεί να απαιτείται για να τερματιστεί. Η δικαιοσύνη δεν απαιτεί να αντιμετωπίζονται όλα τα μέρη ταυτόσημα, αλλά να σταθμίζονται οι επιλογές τους με βάση τις ελευθερίες, τους περιορισμούς, τις προθέσεις και τις συνέπειές τους. 

Οι σελίδες που ακολουθούν δίνουν προτεραιότητα σε τοπικές ισραηλινές και παλαιστινιακές οπτικές, όχι σε εκείνες των απομακρυσμένων διασπορών. Πολλά μένουν ανείπωτα και πολλές απόψεις δεν εκπροσωπούνται, αλλά η αφήγηση συμπυκνώνει έναν αιώνα κοινών δεινών και αποκλινόντων ελπίδων.

Χρόνος ανάγνωσης: περίπου 25 λεπτά. Χρησιμοποιήστε τον συνδεδεμένο πίνακα περιεχομένων για να μεταβείτε απευθείας σε οποιαδήποτε ενότητα. Οι πηγές δίνονται στο τέλος.

Monday, 16 June 2025

Netanyahu's gamble: Power, peril, and the narrow path between deterrence and disaster

Benjamin Netanyahu has spent the better part of the past two decades consolidating his reputation as one of the most polarizing figures in Israeli politics. His political strategy has been driven by survival instinct, tactical maneuvering, and ideological rigidity. A far-right personality, he has aligned himself with increasingly extreme elements in Israeli society and politics. The pattern is familiar: marginalise moderates, normalise extremes, consolidate power.


In the 1990s, Netanyahu stood alongside crowds that called Yitzhak Rabin a traitor for pursuing peace negotiations. His refusal to condemn extremist rhetoric helped foster the toxic climate that culminated in Rabin's assassination. In more recent years, his willingness to form coalition governments with figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, extremists by any standards, has further legitimized positions once considered fringe. Netanyahu's supporters, attempting to paint him in a more positive light, will be keen to object and point out his achievements: economic stability, technological innovation, and the Abraham Accords. But these are just side-notes on a steady push towards the authoritarian right and rising tensions. His politics consist of calculated moves aimed at preserving his grip on power, even as he remains entangled in legal and ethical scandals. 

On the Israeli-Palestinian front, Netanyahu has consistently undermined reconciliation efforts. His policies have accelerated settlement construction, eroded the possibility of a viable Palestinian state, marginalized Palestinian voices seeking avenues to compromise, and entrenched the occupation. 

His apparent strategy has been to keep the conflict unresolved but manageable, a cynical stasis in which Israel incrementally expands territorial control while avoiding the political costs of formal annexation. He has not done this unopposed, but he has succeeded in maintaining a steady background level of fear in Israeli politics by tactically weaponizing extremism. That strategy seemed to be bearing fruit - right up until October 7. In the wake of that atrocity, Israel’s usually raucous public square fell abruptly silent, and most citizens closed ranks around the government.

Under his wartime leadership, Israel has degraded Hezbollah's capabilities, compromised Houthi positions in Yemen, decapitated Hamas leadership, and inflicted devastating damage on Gaza, all without articulating a vision for the future.

A new kind of geopolitical realignment appears to be emerging. Many hawkish strategic analysts have consistently argued over the past few years that Israel’s final target must be Iran. In recent days, Israel has escalated: its air force has struck Iranian strategic assets, aiming to roll back Iran's nuclear program and destabilize the regime. Iran, for its part, is retaliating and striking Israeli territory.

A ground invasion of Iran remains extremely unlikely. Not only because there is no domestic or international will to support it, given the daunting logistics, but because such a move would galvanize nationalist support for the Iranian regime and turn domestic unrest into patriotic defense, just as happened in Israel after October 7. Netanyahu seems to understand this. The U.S. does too. Despite the rhetoric about preparing for a long campaign, he might instead be gambling on a shorter window: degrade Iran's regional posture, compromise its military capabilities, destabilize its internal politics, and encourage an uprising. 

Moreover, public support in Israel for a prolonged confrontation, one that goes beyond setting back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, is relatively moderate to weak, and time does not appear to be working in Netanyahu’s favour, given how a prolonged confrontation can completely destabilize the entire region and lead to all out war. That is his gamble. This is why he is constantly messaging the Iranian people to seize the opportunity.

And here lies the paradox, and history’s irony: if everything aligns just right, and that is a monumental if, Netanyahu may go down in history not just as the deeply divisive figure that he is, but as someone who reshaped the Middle East. The same man who sabotaged the two-state solution, discredited the Palestinian Authority, and deepened fear and division could one day be seen as having cleared away the region’s most persistent external obstacles, and helped dismantle the Islamist axis. The man who brought about the conditions for peace. That could well be the redemption story he tells himself.

This of course all hinges on elements outside Netanyahu’s control: the readiness of the Iranian people to seize the moment, the restraint of regional powers, and the containment of escalation. And that would be one of history’s darker ironies: a legacy not born of wisdom, vision, or moral courage, but of unintended consequence.

But is Netanyahu’s gamble likely to pay off? Most Iranians don’t like their government but they are no friends of Israel either. Netanyahu’s calls to rise up may well be interpreted not as a call to freedom but as a call to assist Israel in its attacks, a call to treason. Moderate Iranians whose daily peace has been disturbed and who witness the devastation are more likely to side with their government, even though they don’t like it. There is a significant Iranian diaspora that hate the regime and are very loud. But however legitimate their grievances and protests, they are not reliable indicators of feelings on the ground  - and the Iranian people are fiercely patriotic. 


Reza Pahlavi is the single best-known opposition face and a rallying symbol for Iranian reformists, but there is little evidence that he commands substantial support within Iran, at least not on the scale that would be needed to turn the tables on the regime. The gamble is therefore extremely risky and equally likely to backfire.

If the conflict drags on and after the two sides become exhausted, something else might materialize entirely. A second possibility is that the devastation may force the clerics to rethink their long-term strategy in order to maintain their grip on power: tone down the rhetoric, rein-in the extremism, and reach out with greater resolve trying to smooth relationships with the West in order to lift sanctions. After all, Russia and China had only words to offer but no material support in the conflict. Iran has been left alone. The pain to the Iranian people and the regime itself is palpable. The costs of isolation are too high to maintain indefinitely. But the fundamentalist and oppressive nature of the regime isn’t likely to change in any meaningful way.


And then there is a third possibility. Iran might harden their stance, pull out of the non-proliferation treaty, as they are already threatening to do, and aim to quickly go full nuclear. And the catastrophe that would follow such a decision would be on a different scale altogether.


References:

Poll shows half of Israelis back Iran strike without U.S. support.

GAMAAN. “Iranians’ Attitudes Toward Political Systems.” March 2022 survey (p. 1-2).

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich sanctioned for incitement to violence.

Iran threatens to leave non-proliferation treaty

IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear facilities, section D.

EU External Action Service. 2023 Report on Israeli Settlements in the Occupied West Bank, August 2024.

UN OCHA. Humanitarian Situation Update #296 (Gaza), 11 June 2025.